The Problem of Openness

I've been fretting about this post for several days. It's about the problem of openness.

You see, many (perhaps most?) of us in parish ministry would say that "openness" or "transparency" is an important value in Christian leadership. We might encourage people to come to us and say we have an "open door" policy. That's all good and great, until people ask us inconvenient questions.

You see, in parish ministry leaders are exposed to all kinds of classified information. You might imagine the sort of dirty secrets that come up in pastoral relationships: affairs and past crimes and current vices. But actually that's not nearly as much a problem as the petty conflicts and foibles that drive a lot of decision making in parish life. People ask me about decisions that staff members or the corporation (the lay leadership of the parish) and I or even the bishop have made, and I simply can't give them the reasons. And I don't want to lie, and so I end up saying something really lame. "That person went on other opportunities" is a terrible, terrible line, but usually it's pretty much the only thing I can say when we have staff turnover. Even if the reasons for the change are quite positive, I usually can't share them.

Then, things get very complicated because people often have heard rumours or have fantasies about the decision in question. Typically they've heard or figured out enough truth to be wet their curiosity even further, but then there is usually enough falsehood mixed in there too to tempt you to correct them.

Sometimes, I really wish I could say more. I see how some people are hurt by things that have happened, and I want to sit them down and explain what happened. I'm sure they would feel better knowing the truth. But, of course, this would be bad, very bad. In fact, I knew a priest once that got sued for talking publicly about a parishioner-to-parishioner conflict happening in parish. Even if what he said was factually correct, in was also embarrassing to at least one of the people involved. I totally understand why he did it, but, yikes!

So "openness" turns out to be a great principle, but it has nothing to do with disclosing the "truth" about "what happened." What else could it mean? Is it something about the emotional honesty of the leader? Maybe. Is it about sharing as much as you can about the non-classified stuff? Of course. But this explanation doesn't help the way I feel when people ask me about important things that I can't talk about....

-t

Appreciative Inquiry in the Diocese of Toronto

Here is a quick video from last week's training session in Appreciative Inquiry...



-t

A Few Breakthroughs

I mentioned previously that I spent three days at the SSJD Convent Receiving the Appreciative Inquiry Training offered by the Clergy Leadership Institute. The instructor was Rev. Dr. Rob Voyle. Rob is psychologist with a great deal of clinical experience, as well an executive coach and even a former Cathedral Dean. He is an interesting guy whose life purpose is to be "Helpful, healing, and humorous."

Registration was limited to be about 25 people, and mostly that was composed of Senior Diocesan Leadership plus a dozen or so parish priests like myself. That made for an interesting dynamic, as when I was paired with Bishop Yu to do an interview designed to discover the deepest, most compelling personal motivations of the subject!

The "Appreciative Inquiry" framework has a lot to offer, and I've already had two opportunities to apply it. Last night I hosted a Stewardship Committee meeting in my home. We are prepared our fall Stewardship Campaign and are facing a substantial deficit as we do so. Raising the giving in the parish by about 30% would fix it and get us back to a balanced budget, but raising giving by that kind of level is going to take some real excellent leadership from everyone involved in the campaign.

So I started the meeting by asking people to go around the room and tell us about something they really, really enjoy doing. When they finished sharing, I explained that this was an easy way to get toward an understanding of people's core values and passions. Knowing that makes moving forward on a group project far easier because it means you can put the builders in charge of building and the deal makers in charge of deal making, etc. The meeting went on and accomplished many things, though not without a few moments that really challenged my skillfulness as a small-group leader. As they left, people said they felt encouraged and enthusiastic about the work ahead, which is great sign.

The second application of Appreciative Inquiry techniques happened in a one-on-one pastoral care situation. Obviously, I can't share much about that, but I will say I was able to resolve a long-standing stuck-ness that had defied several other interventions. One of the things I noticed right away was a large degree of consonance between the method I was employing and the parishioner's therapeutic instincts. In other words, it felt like the right approach to both of us. The energy of the whole dynamic shifted noticeably and I'm really happy about that.

So, there you have it, my endorsement of Appreciative Inquiry. It works, simple as that.

-t

The Power of PowerPoint

When this PowerPoint slide meant to illustrate the complexity of the war in Afghanistan was first shown to a room full of American and Allied Commanders, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal quipped, "When we understand that slide, we’ll have won the war." Everyone laughed. According to a NYTimes article, this slide has become emblematic of how the U.S. Military has become PowerPoint obsessed. Now there is a brewing backlash within the U.S. Military against PowerPoint:

“PowerPoint makes us stupid,” Gen. James N. Mattis of the Marine Corps, the Joint Forces commander, said this month at a military conference in North Carolina. (He spoke without PowerPoint.) Brig. Gen. H. R. McMaster, who banned PowerPoint presentations when he led the successful effort to secure the northern Iraqi city of Tal Afar in 2005, followed up at the same conference by likening PowerPoint to an internal threat.

“It’s dangerous because it can create the illusion of understanding and the illusion of control,” General McMaster said in a telephone interview afterward. “Some problems in the world are not bullet-izable.” (Source)

I love that line coming from a General--"Some problems in the world are not bullet-izable." No kidding. If, as the old adage goes, "To a man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail," then we must beware of how tools like PowerPoint can overly determine our perception of reality.

This is why I sometimes worry about tools in church land like NCD (Natural Church Development). I think it's a great place to start (and I look forward to doing it at COTM), but does it oversimplify the complexity of parish life? I would like to hear from churches that have done two or three cycles of NCD and see if they feel they have run into the limitations of the NCD paradigm, yet.

Back to PowerPoint. There have been several essays in military science journals about the epistemology of PowerPoint--that is, how one thinks with PowerPoint. This one by Starbuck (Capt. Crispin Burke) responded to an earlier essay by retired Marine Colonel TX Hammes. The title of the Hammes essay, Dumb-dumb bullets: As a decision-making aid, PowerPoint is a poor tool, pretty much says it all about how some people feel in the military. What seems to bother people the most is "fuzzy" bullet points that lack actual information. Indeed, PowerPoint is more about persuasion than data.

Senior officers say the program does come in handy when the goal is not imparting information, as in briefings for reporters.

The news media sessions often last 25 minutes, with 5 minutes left at the end for questions from anyone still awake. Those types of PowerPoint presentations, Dr. Hammes said, are known as “hypnotizing chickens.” (source)

It is sobering to consider that one of the significant causes of the Shuttle Columbia disaster, according to the Accident Review Board report, was the improper use of PowerPoint by NASA. "The Board views the endemic use of PowerPoint briefing slides instead of technical papers as an illustration of the problematic methods of technical communication at NASA" (source). One slide in particular (prepared by Boeing--sorry dad) earned the ire of the Accident Review Board:

• The vaguely quantitative words "significant" and"significantly" are used 5 times on this slide, with de facto meanings ranging from "detectable in largely irrelevant calibration case study" to "an amount of damage so that everyone dies" to "a difference of 640-fold." None of these 5 usages appears to refer to the technical meaning of "statistical significance."
• This vague pronoun reference "it" alludes to damage to the protective tiles,which caused the destruction of the Columbia. The slide weakens important material with ambiquous language (sentence fragments, passive voice,multiple meanings of "significant"). The 3 reports were created by engineers for high-level NASA officials who were deciding whether the threat of wing damage required further investigation before the Columbia attempted return. The officials were satisfied that the reports indicated that the Columbia was not in danger,and no attempts to further examine the threat were made. The slides were part of an oral presentation and also were circulated as e-mail attachments.

(source)

Basically, as these slides were passed up the chain of command, people glossed over them and took the tone to mean, "don't worry," rather than, "everyone might die." According to the ARB's Report sidebar titled "Engineering by Viewgraph," a more accurate title for the slide would have been "Review of Test Data Indicates Irrelevance of Two Models."

Of course, no one is likely to die in the Diocese of Toronto because of inappropriate PowerPoint use. For one thing, I don't see a lot of use of PowerPoint in the Diocese of Toronto. Some, but not much. Generally people prefer simple paper handouts (which are often too long to actually read in the meeting, anyway). In fact, the only white board I've seen in the whole building (Dio. Toronto HQ), is the Archbishop's Office. I'm a visual guy, so I really appreciated when I was in a meeting with him once and he started using it as our group brainstormed.

So what is PowerPoint good for? TX Hammes explains:

PowerPoint is not entirely negative. It can be useful in situations it was designed to support — primarily, information briefs rather than decision briefs. For instance, it is an excellent vehicle for instructors. It provides a simple, effective way to share high-impact photos, charts, graphs, film clips and humor that illustrate a lecturer’s points. Here, the bullet can function as designed by providing a brief, simple outline of the speaker’s material that facilitates note-taking and even (one hopes) student retention. Yet even in a classroom setting, it is not appropriate for developing a deep understanding of most subjects. For that, additional reading is required. There is a reason students cannot submit a thesis in PowerPoint format. (Source)

By extension, I think PowerPoint works reasonably well for some sermons. Especially sermons that need some kind of visual element. For instance, I used PowerPoint when I preached about how church architecture shapes liturgical experience. But most of the time I'm looking for as much of a relational moment as possible, so I would rather have people looking at me than a projection screen.

Still, I thought this whole debate about the use of PowerPoint in organizational decision making is worth thinking about.

-t

Mad Scientist or False Suspect?

The New York Times ran a fascinating seven page article about Dr. Bruce Ivins, the FBI's main suspect in the anthrax letter attack back in 2001. Under scrutiny by federal investigators, Ivins committed suicide last year.

Although there is compelling evidence that Ivins was the attacker, there is no "smoking gun" that proves it conclusively. One of the interesting things to emerge, however, is his "darker" side concealed from family and co-workers. He was obsessed, for example, with College Sororities to the point where he actually stole a book of secrets and cipher device from a Sorority house. One minute he is ranting in e-mails in a way that borders on paranoia, the next he's a musician at his church.

Another thing that is interesting is how investigators became fixated on another suspect earlier in the investigation (also a scientist) and only reconsidered Ivins after a change in investigation leadership. But they were cautious to fall into the same trap and hound an innocent man. Reading the article, you get a sense of the FBI was really struggling with the massive amounts of information generated by a case like this. Putting it all together is nearly impossible. Cf. the famous Zodiac Killer case, which was also left in an unresolved state after the main suspect died.

From a purely philosophical point of view, I'm struck by how having more information in an investigation is not necessarily a good thing. In his book Blink, Malcome Gladwell argues that the human capacity for judgment is overwhelmed by too much data, and that the key to good decision making is 1) developing expertise, and 2) exposing that expertise to the right pieces of data (and not too much of it). Emergency room Doctors, for example, more accurately diagnose heart attacks when they are limited to five datums rather than be allowed to exhaustively test every possible indicator.

I believe that one of the primary skills necessary for good leadership (Pastoral or otherwise) in our time is simply managing information. Rather than assume that more and more information on a subject is a good, I think it's important to ask instead, "What do I need to know?" I think it's worthwhile to look at situations like these massive investigations to understand how to organize group thinking and leadership thinking.

-t

The Unbusy Pastor

Another really busy day. Tuesday night I didn't get home until 10 pm thanks to an exhausting but important Parish Council Meeting. That made it a 13 hour day. Yikes. I don't want to be doing too many of those.

I'm really glad I reconstituted the Parish Council when I came to COTM--it accomplishes a bunch of things. First, it gives me a forum to reflect on issues affecting the congregation with more voices at the table than I get when I meet with the staff or the Corporation. Second, the increased diversity of opinions is useful to help correct the bias otherwise inherit in the role of staff or Warden. In other words, I get to hear from people that aren't in a position of power and responsibility in the church. Third, it helps widen the circle of people informed about some of the projects and concerns ongoing here. Fourth, it is a decent incubator for congregational leadership. And last night's meeting fulfilled all those roles. I went away from it feeling like I had a much better grasp on what's actually happening at COTM. It definitely took my insight about certain key dynamics to a new level. So three cheers for the Parish Council!

I couldn't sleep in today as flex time, however, as I had my Contemplative Eucharist to Celebrate. That service is really flourishing. For a while I was practicing being non-anxious about whether it would be sustainable and about whether anybody would come, etc. And yet without really trying hard to promote it I have a nice little group of folks that consistently come. I'm thinking about adding another service and perhaps tacking on a time for instruction on Christian meditation or contemplation. When I told my staff that I wasn't sure I was qualified to teach these things, they teased me mercilessly, so I guess I better just shut up and teach.

After that it was back-to-back meetings through lunch and into the afternoon. One of these was with the Parish Architect. It was a good meeting which produced some solid steps forward. We know what to do next to keep the plans developing.

Only then was I really able to sit down and do e-mail and correspondence. Fingers in many pies. I'm trying to get the lights fixed and the sound system fixed and give helpful feedback about the nascent confirmation program, etc., etc. I'm glad I started the day with some serious meditation!

I'm supposed to go to another meeting that starts in an hour. But it's already 6:30 and I can't imagine doing another 13 hour day. So I think I'm going to pull a Eugene Peterson:

"Yes, but how?" The appointment calendar is the tool with which to get unbusy. It's a gift of the Holy Ghost (unlisted by St. Paul, but a gift nonetheless) that provides the pastor with the means to get time and acquire leisure for praying, preaching, and listening. It is more effective than a protective secretary; it is less expensive than a retreat house. It is the one thing everyone in our society accepts without cavil as authoritative. The authority once given to Scripture is now ascribed to the appointment calendar. The dogma of verbal inerrancy has not been discarded, only re-assigned. When I appeal to my appointment calendar, I am beyond criticism.... (The Contemplative Pastor, Page 22)

A lesson I must hear again and again to get right. Someone at Council last night challenged me with this gem: "Tay, surely there are piles of books written for Pastors about how to drop stuff." True, that.

-t

Will the New Particle Collider End the World?

Picture leached from the New York Times
CERN (The European Centre for Nuclear Research) in Europe just fired up their brand new, $8 Billion Particle Collider in Geneva. With a 17-mile magnetic track it is by far the largest such device in the world. In a few months they will begin experimental collisions with the energy of 7 Trillion Electron Volts. No one has come even close to this scale.

As is often the case with cutting-edge science, fears have been raised and doomsday scenarios posited. A very small minority of scientists have raised concerns that this machine could create small black holes or weird, unknown, and dangerous radiation. In response to that, the scientists designing the Large Hadron Collider (as it is known) have pointed out that their experiments are simply replicating events that happen naturally. Their physics models (the one's being tested and developed by this collider) show that any black holes that do get created will rapidly decay and will not endanger the earth.

Still, I can't help but feel a little nervous. I'm reminded of the scientists that thought a nuclear explosion would cause a chain reaction that would ignite the entire earth's atmosphere. I'm also reminded of an intense and vivid dream I had a few years ago in which aliens were drawn to the earth after sensing strange radiation emanating from a large collider. In the dream, I traveled to the underground research facility and repelled the alien invasion with cunning and a 12-gauge. Oh, and I also had to defeat the Secret Service, who thought I was there to harm the President (who taking a photo op with the new Collider). It was such an exciting and vivid dream that it's still one of my all-time favorites!

No doubt the collider is a convenient carrier for the usual anxieties I'm feeling about ministry. Today I received an anonymous note attacking the mural and my taste--I wonder whether it is the same person that tried to insult me over the internet a few months ago? A buddy-in-arms called me while I was stewing over this nasty note I got and sensed something was wrong. When I told him about the note his response was appropriately short and curt: "If it's not signed it's not worth a ****." Ah, the Zen Master speaks! The student listens to the wise Master.

So much of leadership is figuring out who's opinion you should listen to. I mean, you should hear everyone, but not everyone's notions should carry equal weight when you are making decisions. I know, that seems obvious, but in practice it becomes much more complicated. Try holding your ground when people actually leave the congregation over it, for instance.

-t

Back in the Saddle

I officially started back to work yesterday. Lots and lots of phone calls and e-mails to return, but the most important thing to do yesterday was have a monster staff meeting: 5 1/2 hours worth! But in that time we were able to accomplish a huge amount of planning. Most of the calendar through Christmas is now drafted as far as church program go. We also made a lot of other decisions about various projects. The neat thing for me, as the leader, was how everyone came to the table with great new ideas. The summer break gave time for stuff to ferment and the results are just great. I'm especially thrilled about some of the stuff we have lined up for kids and youth!

This morning was Clive Foster's funeral. It went extremely well and I'm sure that the family were pleased with the turnout (nearly a hundred even though it was the middle of a work day). The reflections that the family gave were excellent and I thought my sermon was strong. The liturgy was smooth and powerful in the right ways. The staff at Humphrey Funeral Home were excellent--I would recommend them to others. They know exactly what clergy need and provide it before you can even ask. I think it was a really great way to send off a former COTM Warden.

The mural looks fantastic--there is only about a week of work left on the mural itself. Today we made some critical decisions about what to do with the lighting. The only other substantial piece (so far as actual renovation goes) is selecting the new carpet. In terms of promotional work, our current thinking is to make a big push in October with local press and perhaps a dedication/consecration service of some kind. Stay tuned!

-t

Sermon - Pentecost 7 2008

For Sunday's Sermon I decided to do some teaching around Christian leadership. In general, I don't think we do enough to empower lay leadership in the church, and I do think being leaders in the world is part of the call of all Christians to be not just disciples, but apostles as well.

So this sermon borrows heavily from Judy Paulsen as well as from Edwin Friedman and others. In the end it lasted an astonishing 22 minutes! I'm still not sure how that happened! Definitely the longest sermon I've given at COTM so far! But for those that asked for more teaching in church, there you go!



Here's a direct link to the MP3 file...

-t

Your Full Ministry

On my mind, this passage from this upcoming Sunday's lectionary:

In the presence of God and of Christ Jesus, who is to judge the living and the dead, and in view of his appearing and his kingdom, I solemnly urge you: proclaim the message; be persistent whether the time is favourable or unfavourable; convince, rebuke, and encourage, with the utmost patience in teaching. For the time is coming when people will not put up with sound doctrine, but having itching ears, they will accumulate for themselves teachers to suit their own desires, and will turn away from listening to the truth and wander away to myths. As for you, always be sober, endure suffering, do the work of an evangelist, carry out your ministry fully. (2 Timothy 4:1-5)

It's the Feast of St. Peter and St. Paul and the lessons are all about pastoral leadership. Appropriate, perhaps, that I just attended a (Momentum) workshop about church leadership. One of the interesting things that Judy pointed out there was that conflict is absolutely necessary for church leadership, and that one should actually "mine" for conflict. Conflict is where the growing edges and creativity are. So one important metric of group effectiveness is its capacity to tolerate the anxiety produced by conflict. I think a lot of clergy get themselves into trouble by avoiding and then occasionally reacting to conflict.

This is a pretty obvious observation is make. Most people will tell you this. But taking to the next level--application--is much trickier. The proverb I hear a lot in church leadership circles is "you have pick which ditches to die in." Meaning that while conflict is good, it takes resources to engage and you can't do it all (at least, not simultaneously). Perhaps this is why Paul says we need to have "patience in teaching." Anybody who has taught anyone anything knows something about that.

So for me "Full Ministry" has something to do with that active and awkward-making moment when you, the priest, choose a path that makes people a bit uncomfortable. The alternative, making everyone happy, is neither holy nor really possible. Comfortable is for the easy chair you use to watch football and nap on Sunday afternoon. We are called to intentionally make ourselves uncomfortable!

-t

Judy Paulsen on Leadership

Here is the Powerpoint presentation that the Rev'd Judy Paulsen (Incumbent of Christ Memorial Church, Oshawa) gave to our Momentum group a few days ago. Many thanks to her for sharing it....

| View | Upload your own

Also, a few books Judy recommended:

• Heifetz, Ronald. Leadership Without Easy Answers. 348pp. $20.46.
• Heifetz, Ronald. Leadership on the Line. 252pp. $21.75.
• Lencioni, Patrick. Death by Meeting: A Leadership Fable.
• Lencioni, Patrick. The Five Dysfunctions of a Team.
• Roxburgh, Alan J. and Fred Romanuk. The Missional Leader: Equipping Your Church to Reach a Changing World 240pp. $16.29
• Roxburgh, Alan J. The Sky is Falling.

-t

Spring Fling

Friday was full of running around. That including preparations to receive Betsy's parents. We had supper with them at home.

Saturday morning was the "Spring Fling" at church--a day for exterior planting and landscaping. The turnout was good--about 20 or more. We did a ton of work. One of the Wardens and I ended up digging up some old, trashy beds on the south side of the church and replanting them. One of the long-time members of the church (pre-fire) told me that I was the first priest he remembers who ever got his handles dirty at parish events like this. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think laboring side-by-side on projects for the good of the congregation is a great way to lead from the front.

After working at the church for a few hours we headed to the house of a parishioner with a pool for a pool party. I did some massive canon balls into the pool, myself. The kids had a great time in the water and the adults enjoyed grilled meats and other summer pool-side delights.

I got a bad case of water in my ear--which became quite annoyed and inflamed. I tried the trick of putting in alcohol to get rid of the water. That didn't get rid of the inflammation and pain, however. So I went to the drug store and got something that did the trick. After letting the drops soak in during a nap I was mostly back to normal.

Church in the morning. I think the congregation should feel proud of itself for a job well-done today!

-t

Wardens' Retreat

30 The apostles gathered around Jesus, and told him all that they had done and taught.
31 He said to them, "Come away to a deserted place all by yourselves and rest a while." For many were coming and going, and they had no leisure even to eat.
32 And they went away in the boat to a deserted place by themselves. (Matthew 6:30-32)

Yesterday I took the COTM Wardens for an all-day retreat at SSJD. As it happened, it was also the Feast of the Visitation of Elizabeth to the BVM, so I was pleased to get my Marion fix while I was there. We arrived in time for Morning Prayer. Had two sessions after that, and then broke for Eucharist and Dinner (Lunch), and then had another session together after that.

Here's a learning: it's easy to over prepare for this kind of thing. That is, I went in a bit anxious about how it would go, so I planned out some stuff ahead of time. Most of that went out the window as soon as we started talking--and the results were better than my plans. So beware of over planning something like this.

As it was, it was plenty to do to spend the first session talking about own spiritual well-being, the second on the church's, and the third on plans and priorities for the next year. I think we came away with a better sense of each other and some ideas about next steps for the church.

SSJD, btw, was an excellent host as always. They told us the rules, put out the coffee and cookies, and left us alone--precisely what we needed!

-t

Random Notes from a Wednesday

An observation about the Contemplative Eucharist: it is a very naked liturgy. By that I mean that as a participant, lay or ordained, you feel exposed. There is nothing wordy to fall back on if your thoughts wander. Thus, the intention of mental attention becomes a really important part of the experience of the prayer. That's very cool, and also a bit treacherous--I can imagine people really beating themselves up about not being "focused" every second of the rite. Self-compassion is a must for any kind of contemplative discipline.

After that service I did some pastoral counseling and then went to Port Perry for a lunch meeting to discuss youth ministry with a couple of experience practitioners of that occult art. I spent the hour drive profitably--listening The Odyssey, unabdridged, on CD in my car. Why The Odyssey? I'm fond of epics and like to reread them from time-to-time. I read Dante's Inferno during Lent and listened to The Iliad unabridged on my trip to Holy Cross a few weeks back.

Anyway, at lunch we talked about youth ministry in this Diocese as well as how it is done in England. One thing that seems quite clear is that this Diocese is really behind the ball. There is a ton of work to be done educating parishes and individuals on how youth ministry can and ought to be done. And yet there are some very talented people in in the field doing great work. God bless 'em.

Last night Betsy and I finished watching seasons 1 and 2 of The Unit. I really enjoyed the depiction of NCO leadership. In fact, I used it as an example when I was talking to someone today about what good leadership looks like. Another favorite example of leadership for me is Captain Picard. Here's another instructive example: the Hagakure, which is a spiritual and practical guide written for Samurai Warriors. I know, that seems weird, but trust me, it has a lot of good insights.

-t

Iron Man

Last night Betsy and I went out on a double date with friends to see the movie "Iron Man"--it was a fine movie for what it was, a summer popcorn flick. Not the sort of thing that teaches you anything new about the human experience, or changes one in any significant way, but it was entertaining enough!

After the movie we went to the Duke of York pub for supper. It was nice walking in the Yorkville area at night with the lights and the people milling around. Got home feeling pleasantly full. Betsy and I have a great life.

Last night I dreamt that I forgot to take the communion bread out of the freezer for the Chancel Guild when I came to church Sunday morning. I do forget to do that sometimes, but it's a minor thing, they can always throw one into the microwave. I had some other unusual dreams, too, including one where I was playing Black Jack at a casino and doing quite well using the Martingale System.

The Martingale System is a betting strategy useful in situations where you are making consecutive bets, with approximately 50% chance and win the amount bet. Basically, every time you loose you double the amount your are betting in the next round. For example, after loosing four dollars you bet bet eight, which means that you recover the loss if you win. If you loose, you bet sixteen. So even if you loose several times in a row, you will make back your money when you finally do win.

The problem is that this model assumes infinite wealth and no limits on how much you can bet. In real life, neither of these are true--all it takes is a few losses in a row to exceed the available cash for betting and also exceed the table limits. In fact, that's one of the reasons why casinos have table limits--to defeat this kind of betting strategy. But it doesn't really matter, since you can mathematically demonstrate that as long as the amount of money you have available for betting is finite, you will eventually run into a loosing streak long enough to bankrupt yourself!

Here's the math, for those of you that like math:

Let q be the probability of losing (e.g. for roulette it is 20/38). Let y be the amount of the commencing bet (e.g. $10 in the example above). Let x be the finite number of bets you can afford to lose.

The probability that you lose all x bets is qx. When you lose all your bets, the amount of money you lose is

The probability that you do not lose all x bets is 1 − qx. If you do not lose all x bets, you win y amount of money. So the expected profit per round is

Whenever q > 1/2, the expression 1 − (2q)x < 0 for all x > 0. That means for any game where it is more likely to lose than to win (e.g. all chance gambling games), you are expected to lose money on average. Furthermore, the more times you are able to afford to bet, the more you will lose. (source)

The trade in this system is steady gain at the risk of a string of losses.

I think they should teach game theory in seminary. It's important to be able to evaluate strategies in any kind of leadership.

-t

Annual Vestry

The Annual Vestry Meeting today went extremely well. I won't give a blow-by-blow, but I will say that people said it was one of the best Annual Vestry Meetings in years. There is definitely a sense that things are on the upswing. People are really enthusiastic about the state and future of the parish and it shows.

Someone told me today that my love for the congregation shows and is rubbing off. Certainly I felt loved at the Annual Vestry Meeting (and how many Rectors can say that after their Annual meeting?) Honeymoon period? Perhaps, but I'm still going to savor it.

Tomorrow is for rest and a few errands. Cheers!

-t

Another Video Posting

On a video-posting spree--so here's a classic Twin Peaks moment...



Would it a bad thing if I based my leadership style on Dale Cooper's?

-t

I'm Going to San Francisco!

The Diocese mandates that I have to put aside (and eventually spend) a certain amount every year for Continuing Education. So this year I've decided to spend that money going to a conference in San Francisco. It's called "Leadership In Community: helping the people find their voice in the liturgy" and is being hosted/sponsored by St. Gregory of Nyssa Episcopal Church, which I've talked about a lot on this blog. I feel that I have a lot to learn from these people, so I think it will be a worthwhile investment of my time. Plus, SF is a kick-ass town and I can see some friends while I'm there. The conference runs from the 22nd to the 25th, but I'll probably take that Sunday off as my post-Christmas vacation (clergy get 1 week off after Christmas and then a month off in the summer).

This is one of those moments where I am just delighted that my life and ministry are turning out so well. Blessings, blessings, blessings.

But there is work to be done, too. This morning I had a meeting with some folks to look at some of the financial administration issues that need to be addressed. Some of it is compliance stuff, like making sure we get our books properly audited. Others have more to do with getting data flowing from A to B in a helpful way and planning how we are going to make up the 2008 budget. Most of the tasks to be done are straightforward, but it's just a matter of planning a course of action and implementing it.



-t

St. Bart's in the NYT

St. Bart's, NYC, is one of these parishes that people talk about a lot as an example of how to renew/rebuild an urban church. Today the Rector, Bill Tully, was profiled in the NY Times. From the article:

His very first Sunday sermon at St. Bart’s was, in a word, lonely. In a space designed to accommodate 1,300 worshipers, there were perhaps 200. Extinction not only seemed a real possibility; in a sad way it seemed to make sense, even to him. “I didn’t want to be known for being the rector of a fancy landmark and nothing more.” Mr. Tully came to the instant revelation that if reinvention was in the cards, putting new people in the pews was paramount. “A theology of radical welcome was what we needed,” he says. “Because there is no parish here in the traditional sense of a residential neighborhood, we had to become a destination church. We are loose around the edges, but solid at the core. This is a thinking person’s church.”

Now that he has grown the numbers and has a good corp of people, he has started to raise the money to repair the facilities--that will take about $100 Million. His first phase is only $30 Million, but still inconceivable by the standards of most Canadian Anglican churches. And yet he's already well on his way.

One of the comments that my Canadian colleagues always make when discussing St. Bart's is something like, "Americans aren't afraid to ask for money." And I think they may be pointing to one difference between American and Canadian Church culture, but at the heart of it I think a more profound difference is evident: American churches are more entrepreneurial in character. "Radical" initiatives of the type that made St. Bart's successful are simply more common and better accepted in the ECUSA than the ACC.

This pattern is shifting. There is a lot of talk in ministry circles about being being more entrepreneurial. That means taking risks and being creative and spending resources without a guaranteed return. I know of only a few churches in this diocese that seem to be doing that (I'd rather not name them here). And it also requires a very new kind of pastoral leader:

Only an outside-the-steeple thinker whose idea of a religious experience is donning cycling Spandex for a full-throttle 12-mile bike ride through Central Park at daybreak could be unfazed about raising $30 million — in phase one — in the current fiscal climate. So far, his parish has come up with $15 million; corporate donations, led by a $1 million gift from the Conrad N. Hilton Foundation, have yielded just over $2 million. Progress.

This is not your grandfather's parish priest--nor am I. Pastoral leadership that is capable of this kind of transformation requires a certain amount of edgy gumption. I'm sure that means that people like Billy Tully are weak in other areas. And I'm sure there are lots of faithful disciples out there who won't gain much from his leadership--but he sure has done a remarkable thing at St. Bart's.

I think it's a mistake when looking at examples of good clerical leadership to focus too much on what was done or even how it was done. The more fruitful question to ask is about the character of someone like Billy Tully. What sort of person is he? How does he live? What does he care about. Where does he spend his time? And so forth. Alas, a short profile in the New York Times won't help me much in this regard.

Another church that gets talked about a lot is St. Gregory of Nyssa in San Francisco. I see that they are hosting a conference on leadership in late January. I'm tempted to go--it seems right where I am. As usual, though, much will depend on the timing of things.

-t

Visioning Workshop Number 1

Today's visioning event went extremely well. Although we didn't have a huge group (13 adults and 2 kids and 4 teachers!), we had a critical mass for the work at hand: understanding our collective past as a church. I think we all learned a few things that we didn't know, which is important, but I think we also became a bit closer by virtue of having shared our ideas and memories about COTM for 2 1/2 hours. Our Parish Administrator is going to type up the notes and we will distribute them to the congregation via e-mail. At times there has been a semi-regular e-mail to the congregation; I realize that I should revive that tradition. It's a fairly obvious application of my conception of having a media-rich church.

On Friday I stopped by the old Rectory. We let the tenants pick the paint colors and make some other decorating decisions, which was wise. They have done a marvelous job making it their home. It's amazing how much impact simple things like fresh paint and refinishing floors and replacing cabinet knobs can have. I'm also glad this all turned out well without a ton of hands-on input from me. There is nothing as satisfying as setting people loose on a project and finding that they have exceeded your expectations!

-t